A Historical Perspective in Times of Uncertainty
There’s a lot of noise out there right now — headlines, predictions, and market chatter. And as with every market event, some are quick to say, “this time is different.” In truth, I’ve been through countless market pullbacks over the years — and while each one has its own trigger, they all share a familiar pattern. So yes, this one is different — but in all the ways that feel the same. Pullbacks are a normal and necessary part of investing.
Every few years, markets go through corrections (drops of 10% or more), and sometimes bear markets (drops of 20% or more). These are normal, expected, and always temporary. What they all have in common is uncertainty — and that’s exactly what we’re facing again now.
In 2008, it was the credit crisis
In 2020, it was the pandemic
In 2022, it was inflation
In 2025, it’s uncertainty around tariffs and global trade
There are two ways this plays out: either this is an unscrupulous, bullying negotiating tactic and things get resolved (which I believe eventually happens), or tariffs become part of the new landscape and economies adjust. Either way, once the uncertainty clears, markets will reset — and flourish.
To give this some timeless perspective, I want to share a short 2-minute clip from 1994 featuring Peter Lynch — one of Fidelity’s most successful and respected fund managers in history. What he said then rings just as true today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oik_N0BoiQE
Peter Lynch talking about pullbacks in the Stock Market
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I understand how unsettling it can feel when values drop. But I want to reassure you — this is my job, not yours. I watch the markets so you don’t have to, and I draw on history and experience to guide our strategy. And here’s what I know: things will get better.
A quick reminder: we’re all impacted — not just in our personal portfolios.
Your CPP contributions from every pay cheque are invested in a globally diversified portfolio, just like any other retirement fund. When you begin drawing CPP benefits, that money is withdrawn from the very same investment pool. So whether you’re contributing or receiving benefits, you’re participating in the market through the CPP.
The same is true for many of the pension plans you or your family may be members of. These funds — managed by full-time teams with deep resources — are seeing similar short-term volatility, holding many of the same high-quality companies found in individual portfolios.
Here’s a snapshot of the top public equity holdings in the CPP and Ontario’s major pension funds, along with their 2025 year-to-date performance:
CPP (Canada Pension Plan):
NVIDIA (–31%)
Apple (–24%)
Microsoft (–15%)
Mastercard (–7%)
Amazon (–23%)
OMERS:
Amazon (–23%)
Microsoft (–15%)
Apple (–24%)
Alphabet (–23%)
Visa (–1%)
OTPP (Teachers' Pension):
Microsoft (–15%)
GFL Environmental (+0%)
Chubb Insurance (+10%)
Bank of America (–21%)
Alphabet (–23%)
OPTrust:
Microsoft (–15%)
Meta Platforms (–4%)
Bank of America (–21%)
Alphabet (–23%)
UnitedHealth Group (+4%)
HOOPP:
NVIDIA (–31%)
Apple (–24%)
Microsoft (–15%)
Alphabet (–23%)
UnitedHealth Group (+4%)
These aren’t signs of poor management — they’re signs of long-term investing at work. Despite short-term price declines, these managers remain fully invested, just like we do, because the focus is on the long game — not short-term headlines. History has shown time and time again: markets recover, and those who stay disciplined benefit the most.
This may feel like “one of those times,” but it’s not different. Every correction has a trigger, but the outcome is always the same: eventual recovery. Let’s stay focused on the big picture — and trust the process.
If you’d like to talk about your plan or have questions, I’m always here.
Sincerely,
Steve
